Valuable resources
The English countryside’s natural and
cultural resources attract large numbers of visitors, and tourism
supports many jobs and businesses, notably in and around country
towns. Driven by increased earnings, more single people, and,
perhaps, more leisure time, the demand for tourism will continue to
grow, bringing jobs and money to the countryside. But there are
uncertainties: a decline in farming may make the countryside less
attractive to tourists; providers may not innovate sufficiently to
meet new consumer demands; and there will be strong competition
from cities and from overseas.
Growing markets
The rural population could leap by four million
over the next 20 years.
Many will live in currently expanding country
towns. Planning policy may encourage others to move to other
smaller towns giving them a new lease of life and easing pressure
on the urban fringe. This growing population will create great
opportunities for goods and service providers.
Many services need to be close to their customers
– from retailing to healthcare to take- away food –
while some (eg. supermarkets) require a substantial population to
be viable. Many new arrivals will be comparatively well-off, with
plenty to spend in the local economy, and will continue to want
many of the services they had in cities. On the back of a housing
boom, the demand will soar for fittings, furniture and garden
products. Public spending and services will also increase -
government spending represents around 40% of the rural economy and
is a major source of employment. ICT will enable medical and
educational services, for example, to become more dispersed and no
longer concentrated in large population centres.
Good places to do business
For relocating or new firms, country towns and
their surroundings offer a good ‘image’, relatively
unrestricted space, pleasant working environments and often cheaper
labour, without the physical decay and social problems of older
industrial areas. Further outsourcing will favour the growth of
small specialist firms, many of which will be attracted to rural
locations. The arrival of experienced middle and higher income
groups will provide a pool of skilled labour. Advances in ICT,
leading to more effective virtual networking and home- based
working, will enable organisations to downscale their centralised
operations and disperse their activities over a number of smaller
units, including in rural locations.
However, as with tourism above, there are
obstacles to realising these opportunities.
- Housing
costs and insufficient low-cost housing may create a shortage of
key workers in the public services, education and middle
management, as well as of ‘old economy’ low-paid
personnel, such as security workers and cleaners.
- Good
transport will be vital if country towns and their hinterlands are
to attract investment. The travel crunch will prove such a risk to
economic growth that almost certainly roads will be improved.
Despite opposition, some motorways and trunk
roads will be widened, and a number of by- passes built.