Direct and indirect
costs of crime in terms of human, social and economic losses
seriously distort development priorities and goals. Expenditures on
the maintenance of law and order divert funds urgently needed in
other sectors and are a heavy burden on national budgets. Problems
encountered include the emergence of sophisticated forms of crime
new to many countries lacking the experience and resources to
respond adequately.
Although attempts
have been made to put a "price" on traditional types of crime, none
has been acceptable. The really important costs of crime are damage
to the quality of life, incapacitated and frightened victims,
restriction of movement, and so on, but these costs cannot be
linked directly to a country's economic situation. The remedy that
has gained much support in recent years is that of victim-support.
The cost of such schemes is small compared with other costs of
crime and crime control.
The relationship
between the advance of technology and other aspects of economic
development, and the rate and type of criminal activity can be
measured somewhat more precisely, but still leaves a lot to
guesswork. Many criminal justice officials and research
criminologists believe that the link between "organized crime" and
legitimate business is growing stronger. Telecommunications makes
it possible, even easy, to carry out fraud and embezzlement over a
wider geographical area and on a much grander scale.
National economies
are likely to suffer increasingly from costs and effects of
conventional crime, growth of organized crime, including the use of
legitimate or quasi-legitimate organizational techniques and
structures for illegal economic gain and from costs of attempts to
control crime. Based on findings of the first and second United
Nations Surveys of Crime Trends, Operation of Criminal Justice
Systems and Crime Preservation Strategies, projections of recent
trends suggest that criminal justice systems are a major growth
industry. For every 100 recorded crimes in 1975, there are now 160;
for every 100 police officers there would be over 170; and for
every 100 adults in prison, there would be over 200.
Economic growth
might bring some increase in some types of crime, while others will
decrease. However, types likely to increase are those that are most
likely to be reported, so that an increase in recorded criminality
could possibly accompany a decrease in unrecorded traditional
criminality. However, unrecorded crime, specifically in respect to
economic crime, is likely to continue to grow rather than
decrease.
The broad category
of different techniques involving technology for the non-violent
but illegal acquisition and use of money seem likely to grow
considerably; it will directly affect the economy of some, perhaps
many, countries. Many criminal justice practitioners and policy-
makers believe that the most effective tool for prevention and
control of such activities is the forfeiture or freezing of assets.
To ensure wide practice, the banking industry's co-operation is
needed, including less secrecy.
The preceding are
projections and not forecasts. However, they do show that a huge
increase in demands made upon the national economy by the criminal
justice system is, at least, highly likely, and perhaps inevitable
in many countries. Because prison is a very expensive institution
in any country, an even more alarming feature is the fast-rising
number of adults in prison. The cost of prison service alone is
beginning to make criminal justice a major component in the budget
of every country's public sector. On the one hand, more police
officers are being recruited, leading to more arrests; and on the
other, there is evidence that courts in many countries are handing
down longer sentences because they perceive themselves faced -with
a rising crime wave. The self-amplifying nature of this phenomenon
is particularly worrying, in that the larger police force "creates"
the impression of a larger crime problem by arresting more
suspects. It is thus extremely difficult to determine how much of
the increase is genuine and how much is the result of policies
adopted in the different criminal justice agencies. However, in
this context, the even more important issue is that the impact on
the national budget will continue to increase. One response for a
national administration is to allow the continued strengthening of
the "intake" end of the system, the police, but not to expand the
capacity for disposal after trial. That results in overcrowded
prisons, however, which both offend generally accepted standards of
human rights and are widely thought to be themselves
criminogenic.
In summary, the
rising levels of recorded crime and of State responses to it can be
expected to have a significant and deleterious effect on many
national economies by the year 2010. The harm done to individual
victims may not be easily quantifiable in economic terms, but
organized crime—and with it a threat to legitimate business
practices—seems likely to grow. Finally, the rising cost of
criminal justice will compel the diversion of resources from more
popular and desirable components of the public sector.
