A long-run historical perspective reveals that
world population growth rates changed dramatically around the time
of the Industrial Revolution in the developed world. In Europe the
rate of change went from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent per annum. In
North America the rate rose to 2 per cent per annum in the early
nineteenth century, owing to high fertility, low mortality and
substantial immigration. Yet these are low rates of increase
compared to the experience of developing countries in the twentieth
century. Rates of growth below 2 per cent per annum have been the
exception, with annual rates being closer to 3 per cent, twice that
of the developed countries at a comparable stage of development.
The marked contrast in historical experience is underlined by the
fact that population growth and increases in material prosperity
were correlated in the developed world transition, but population
growth tends to be fastest the poorer the country in the
current developing world. In short, there seems to be little by way
of comparison between the historical experience of the currently
developed countries and the recent experience of the developing
world.
There is a special problem of population growth
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Whereas population growth rates are broadly
constant or declining in all other regions of the world, growth
rates in Sub-Saharan Africa (ssa) have increased steadily from 2.5
per cent per annum in 1960 to 3 per cent per annum in 1983. This is
the outcome of significant reductions in death rates and very
little change in birth rates (indeed, some countries have
experienced increased birth rates). Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe and Kenya
have growth rates in excess of 4 per cent per annum which, if
sustained, would double their populations in less than eighteen
years. For Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the 1985 population of
485 million would be doubled in just twenty-two years if current
rates of growth were sustained.
World population
(1950-2050)
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International
Data Base. Note: Data updated 7-17-2003
(1) Year ; (2)
Population ; (3) Average
annual growth rate (%): (4) Average annual population
change
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1950 2,555,360,972 1.47
37,785,986
1951 2,593,146,958 1.61
42,060,389
1952 2,635,207,347 1.71
45,337,232
1953 2,680,544,579 1.77
47,971,823
1954 2,728,516,402 1.87
51,451,629
1955 2,779,968,031 1.89
52,959,308
1956 2,832,927,339 1.95
55,827,050
1957 2,888,754,389 1.94
56,506,563
1958 2,945,260,952 1.76
52,335,100
1959 2,997,596,052 1.39
42,073,278
1960 3,039,669,330 1.33
40,792,172
1961 3,080,461,502 1.80
56,094,590
1962 3,136,556,092 2.19
69,516,194
1963 3,206,072,286 2.19
71,119,813
1964 3,277,192,099 2.08
69,031,982
1965 3,346,224,081 2.08
70,238,858
1966 3,416,462,939 2.02
69,755,364
1967 3,486,218,303 2.04
71,882,406
1968 3,558,100,709 2.08
74,679,905
1969 3,632,780,614 2.05
75,286,491
1970 3,708,067,105 2.07
77,587,001
1971 3,785,654,106 2.01
76,694,660
1972 3,862,348,766 1.95
76,183,283
1973 3,938,532,049 1.90
75,547,134
1974 4,014,079,183 1.81
73,265,577
1975 4,087,344,760 1.74
71,797,582
1976 4,159,142,342 1.72
72,213,985
1977 4,231,356,327 1.69
72,172,286
1978 4,303,528,613 1.73
75,085,409
1979 4,378,614,022 1.71
75,655,181
1980 4,454,269,203 1.69
75,864,564
1981 4,530,133,767 1.75
80,105,008
1982 4,610,238,775 1.73
80,253,764
1983 4,690,492,539 1.68
79,312,007
1984 4,769,804,546 1.68
80,596,505
1985 4,850,401,051 1.68
82,324,417
1986 4,932,725,468 1.71
85,142,812
1987 5,017,868,280 1.69
85,667,332
1988 5,103,535,612 1.66
85,671,996
1989 5,189,207,608 1.66
86,677,681
1990 5,275,885,289 1.58
83,940,351
1991 5,359,825,640 1.55
83,939,711
1992 5,443,765,351 1.48
81,404,054
1993 5,525,169,405 1.44
80,191,434
1994 5,605,360,839 1.43
80,626,257
1995 5,685,987,096 1.38
79,173,661
1996 5,765,160,757 1.37
79,745,131
1997 5,844,905,888 1.34
78,784,175
1998 5,923,690,063 1.31
78,308,546
1999 6,001,998,609 1.27
77,008,373
2000 6,079,006,982 1.23
75,318,861
2001 6,154,325,843 1.20
74,315,460
2002 6,228,641,303 1.18
73,845,390
2003 6,302,486,693 1.16
73,395,376
2004 6,375,882,069 1.14
72,898,133
2005 6,448,780,202 1.12
72,714,711
2006 6,521,494,913 1.11
72,772,754
2007 6,594,267,667 1.10
72,776,911
2008 6,667,044,578 1.08
72,703,236
2009 6,739,747,814 1.07
72,485,099
2010 6,812,232,913 1.06
72,447,829
2011 6,884,680,742 1.05
72,509,964
2012 6,957,190,706 1.03
72,261,423
2013 7,029,452,129 1.02
71,803,520
2014 7,101,255,649 1.00
71,144,072
2015 7,172,399,721 0.98
70,443,548
2016 7,242,843,269 0.96
69,755,219
2017 7,312,598,488 0.94
68,928,253
2018 7,381,526,741 0.92
67,997,557
2019 7,449,524,298 0.89
66,966,195
2020 7,516,490,493 0.87
65,973,432
2021 7,582,463,925 0.85
65,024,404
2022 7,647,488,329 0.83
63,958,545
2023 7,711,446,874 0.81
62,831,316
2024 7,774,278,190 0.79
61,670,133
2025 7,835,948,323 0.77
60,634,107
2026 7,896,582,430 0.75
59,738,215
2027 7,956,320,645 0.74
58,800,509
2028 8,015,121,154 0.72
57,842,466
2029 8,072,963,620 0.70
56,862,516
2030 8,129,826,136 0.69
55,988,383
2031 8,185,814,519 0.67
55,209,498
2032 8,241,024,017 0.66
54,325,204
2033 8,295,349,221 0.64
53,388,484
2034 8,348,737,705 0.63
52,432,568
2035 8,401,170,273 0.61
51,582,599
2036 8,452,752,872 0.60
50,825,199
2037 8,503,578,071 0.59
49,945,328
2038 8,553,523,399 0.57
49,018,566
2039 8,602,541,965 0.56
48,111,036
2040 8,650,653,001 0.55
47,314,021
2041 8,697,967,022 0.53
46,592,583
2042 8,744,559,605 0.52
45,712,304
2043 8,790,271,909 0.51
44,766,065
2044 8,835,037,974 0.50
43,861,193
2045 8,878,899,167 0.48
43,037,087
2046 8,921,936,254 0.47
42,237,824
2047 8,964,174,078 0.46
41,228,872
2048 9,005,402,950 0.44
40,089,886
2049 9,045,492,836 0.43
39,002,569
2050 9,084,495,405
