Settlement
Social progress and sustainable economic growth require an efficient spatial and administrative system of human settlements, a system that provides the concentration of infrastructure and buildings where people can live and work with some degree of safety, comfort, and efficiency.
Increased investment in shelter, infrastructure, and related services can be a major source of economic growth. Construction accounted for 62 per cent of gross fixed capital formation in 1985 in the 53 developing market economies for which data were available, and for 57 per cent in 25 developed market economies. Approximately one third of the construction was devoted to housing and two thirds to non-residential buildings and other construction .
For most developing countries, construction based on appropriate technologies and standards uses mostly domestic material. Using inputs that are primarily domestic, including semi-skilled and non- skilled labour, it can provide a degree of insulation from external economic shocks and be used as a macro-economic policy instrument to stabilize economic growth. Although most human settlements investments do not generate foreign exchange directly, they can contribute to the overall productivity of the economy, including the export sectors. They should not be ranked so low, as they have been in most developing countries, relative to conventional import-substitution or export- promotion programmes.
Transforming the rural economy from one of traditional subsistence agriculture to a diversified rural sector that produces for national and international markets requires a supporting system of human settlements. Intermediate-sized towns can efficiently provide services for a modernized rural economy and process some agricultural commodities, with increased employment opportunities for rural emigrants.
Urban population has been growing faster than total population in all parts of the world, especially in the developing countries, and this trend is expected to continue through the 21st century. Although the very large "megacities" in developing countries show some signs of decrease in their growth rates, their populations are rapidly passing the levels of many of the largest urban areas in the developed countries. The rate of population growth in large cities (i.e., those with a population of 2 million or more) in the developing countries is on the average 3 times the rate in the developed countries, due to higher rates of natural increase and immigration. In 1985, there were 100 cities or urban areas in the world with over 2 million residents; 30 had a population of 5 million or more and 11 had 10 million or more. Now, the number of urban areas in the world with over 5 million inhabitants is around 50 and about two thirds of these will be in the developing regions. There is little evidence to indicate that the largest projected "megacities" will be technically unmanageable, despite fears to the contrary. Nevertheless, revised policies and administrative mechanisms for urban expansion and operation are badly needed to improve their efficiency and livability, or at least to maintain the present levels.
The rate of urban population increase in both developed and developing countries appears to decline slightly as the population of an urban area increases. While the growth rate of urban areas with more than 2 million inhabitants generally exceeds that of the total population, it tends to be lower than that of the total urban population. Taken together, the four agglomerations with 10 million or more people in the developed countries, namely, Tokyo/ Yokohama, New York, London, and Los Angeles, had an average annual growth rate of 0.73 per cent from 1980 to 1985 and an expected growth rate of 0.72 per cent between 1985 and 2010. The growth rates of the total urban population in their countries (Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom) are 0.85 and 0.67 per cent for the two periods respectively. In the developed countries as a whole, the total urban growth rate was 10 per cent from 1980 to 1985 and is estimated at 0.87 per cent from 1985 to 2010.
The seven agglomerations with 10 million or more people in 1985 in the developing countries—namely Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Calcutta, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, and Seoul—had an average annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent between 1980 and 1985; a growth rate of 2.4 per cent from 1985 to 2010 is expected. The total urban population in the six countries containing these seven cities grew at 2.9 per cent annually from 1980 to 1985 and was expected to grow at 3.0 per cent between 1985 to 2010. These rates are compared with 3.6 per cent in both periods for the developing countries as a whole. The same pattern holds for the agglomerations with 5 to 9.9 million inhabitants (6 in the developed countries and 13 in the developing countries).
The demographic trends associated with urbanization and rural-urban migration should be interpreted as propelled by changing economic forces. Most developing countries are rapidly changing from a predominantly agrarian economy to an economy in which urban centres play a predominant role. About 70 per cent of the GDP on the average in developing countries is already generated by towns and cities, and this figure is expected to increase somewhat by the end of the century. At the same time, the agrarian economy is shifting to more market-oriented production using modern technologies, and the growing presence of foreign firms generates direct and indirect demand for urban services that meet international standards.
The decline of traditional sectors of industry in the predominantly urban economies of many developed countries has affected the fiscal base and the social and physical environment in many of their older cities. Fiscal incentives and new communication and information technologies have reduced the traditional advantages of large cities as locations for economic activity. Large numbers of affluent workers and retired people have moved to smaller urban centres that offer advantages of climate and amenity. Thus, the shift towards a service and high-technology economy has been accompanied by the location of new economic activity in the suburbs and small and medium-sized cities. This is producing large shifts in the geographic structure of the population and in the age structure of the urban population.
Continuation of the trend towards dispersal of settlements seems likely, and this trend will not necessarily be restricted to industrialized countries. The infrastructure is not likely to be in place for this to have a dramatic influence in the developing countries by the year 2000. But if renewable-energy technologies become more practical, they could allow the development of new settlement patterns to accommodate the rapidly increasing urban population in the developing countries, and the decay of older urban centres could become a preoccupying policy issue in the future.