Social progress and
sustainable economic growth require an efficient spatial and
administrative system of human settlements, a system that provides
the concentration of infrastructure and buildings where people can
live and work with some degree of safety, comfort, and
efficiency.
Increased investment
in shelter, infrastructure, and related services can be a major
source of economic growth. Construction accounted for 62 per cent
of gross fixed capital formation in 1985 in the 53 developing
market economies for which data were available, and for 57 per cent
in 25 developed market economies. Approximately one third of the
construction was devoted to housing and two thirds to
non-residential buildings and other construction .
For most developing
countries, construction based on appropriate technologies and
standards uses mostly domestic material. Using inputs that are
primarily domestic, including semi-skilled and non- skilled labour,
it can provide a degree of insulation from external economic shocks
and be used as a macro-economic policy instrument to stabilize
economic growth. Although most human settlements investments do not
generate foreign exchange directly, they can contribute to the
overall productivity of the economy, including the export sectors.
They should not be ranked so low, as they have been in most
developing countries, relative to conventional import-substitution
or export- promotion programmes.
Transforming the
rural economy from one of traditional subsistence agriculture to a
diversified rural sector that produces for national and
international markets requires a supporting system of human
settlements. Intermediate-sized towns can efficiently provide
services for a modernized rural economy and process some
agricultural commodities, with increased employment opportunities
for rural emigrants.
Urban population has
been growing faster than total population in all parts of the
world, especially in the developing countries, and this trend is
expected to continue through the 21st century. Although the very
large "megacities" in developing countries show some signs of
decrease in their growth rates, their populations are rapidly
passing the levels of many of the largest urban areas in the
developed countries. The rate of population growth in large cities
(i.e., those with a population of 2 million or more) in the
developing countries is on the average 3 times the rate in the
developed countries, due to higher rates of natural increase and
immigration. In 1985, there were 100 cities or urban areas in the
world with over 2 million residents; 30 had a population of 5
million or more and 11 had 10 million or more. Now, the number of
urban areas in the world with over 5 million inhabitants is around
50 and about two thirds of these will be in the developing regions.
There is little evidence to indicate that the largest projected
"megacities" will be technically unmanageable, despite fears to the
contrary. Nevertheless, revised policies and administrative
mechanisms for urban expansion and operation are badly needed to
improve their efficiency and livability, or at least to maintain
the present levels.
The rate of urban
population increase in both developed and developing countries
appears to decline slightly as the population of an urban area
increases. While the growth rate of urban areas with more than 2
million inhabitants generally exceeds that of the total population,
it tends to be lower than that of the total urban population. Taken
together, the four agglomerations with 10 million or more people in
the developed countries, namely, Tokyo/ Yokohama, New York, London,
and Los Angeles, had an average annual growth rate of 0.73 per cent
from 1980 to 1985 and an expected growth rate of 0.72 per cent
between 1985 and 2010. The growth rates of the total urban
population in their countries (Japan, the United States, and the
United Kingdom) are 0.85 and 0.67 per cent for the two periods
respectively. In the developed countries as a whole, the total
urban growth rate was 10 per cent from 1980 to 1985 and is
estimated at 0.87 per cent from 1985 to 2010.
The seven
agglomerations with 10 million or more people in 1985 in the
developing countries—namely Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai,
Calcutta, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, and Seoul—had an
average annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent between 1980 and 1985; a
growth rate of 2.4 per cent from 1985 to 2010 is expected. The
total urban population in the six countries containing these seven
cities grew at 2.9 per cent annually from 1980 to 1985 and was
expected to grow at 3.0 per cent between 1985 to 2010. These rates
are compared with 3.6 per cent in both periods for the developing
countries as a whole. The same pattern holds for the agglomerations
with 5 to 9.9 million inhabitants (6 in the developed countries and
13 in the developing countries).
The demographic
trends associated with urbanization and rural-urban migration
should be interpreted as propelled by changing economic forces.
Most developing countries are rapidly changing from a predominantly
agrarian economy to an economy in which urban centres play a
predominant role. About 70 per cent of the GDP on the average in
developing countries is already generated by towns and cities, and
this figure is expected to increase somewhat by the end of the
century. At the same time, the agrarian economy is shifting to more
market-oriented production using modern technologies, and the
growing presence of foreign firms generates direct and indirect
demand for urban services that meet international
standards.
The decline of
traditional sectors of industry in the predominantly urban
economies of many developed countries has affected the fiscal base
and the social and physical environment in many of their older
cities. Fiscal incentives and new communication and information
technologies have reduced the traditional advantages of large
cities as locations for economic activity. Large numbers of
affluent workers and retired people have moved to smaller urban
centres that offer advantages of climate and amenity. Thus, the
shift towards a service and high-technology economy has been
accompanied by the location of new economic activity in the suburbs
and small and medium-sized cities. This is producing large shifts
in the geographic structure of the population and in the age
structure of the urban population.
Continuation of the
trend towards dispersal of settlements seems likely, and this trend
will not necessarily be restricted to industrialized countries. The
infrastructure is not likely to be in place for this to have a
dramatic influence in the developing countries by the year 2000.
But if renewable-energy technologies become more practical, they
could allow the development of new settlement patterns to
accommodate the rapidly increasing urban population in the
developing countries, and the decay of older urban centres could
become a preoccupying policy issue in the future.