From 1985 into the 21st century the populations of
both the developed and the developing regions have grown older.
This is so in the sense that the median age and the proportion of
elderly (60 and over) increased. Between 1985 and 2000, the median
age increased by 3.8 years in the developed regions and by 2.8
years in the developing regions as a whole. But in Africa it
remained virtually constant. There was a very large increases in
the number of the elderly in all regions, reflecting growth rates
considerably greater than the growth rates of the total population.
The world's elderly population grew by about 2.5 per cent annually
between 1985 and 2000, compared with 1.7 per cent annually for the
total population. The annual rate of growth of the number of
elderly in the developing countries is now about 3 per cent, almost
twice as high as in the developed countries. Nonetheless, the share
of the elderly in the total population has not increased very much
between 1985 and 2000. In the developed countries, it has risen
from 16 to 19 per cent; in the developing countries, from 7 to 8
per cent (in Africa it is 5 per cent). For the world as a whole, it
has increased from 9 to 10 per cent.
Dependency ratios seek to capture the changes in
the relative proportions of the economically active population,
which is conventionally defined as the age group between 15 and 64,
and those which are younger or older. This is obviously a gross
simplification. In many countries, most of the young contribute to
production before the age of 15 and in others, much later.
Similarly, some adults retire from active economic life before the
age of 65 and others, only later. Minor differences between the
ratios in different countries should not be regarded as
significant, therefore, but major changes will reflect economically
important aspects of a changing population
structure.
For the world as a whole, the old-age dependency
ratio (the ratio of those over 65 to those between the age of 15
and 64) did not change much between 1985 and 2000, rising from 10
to 11 per cent. This was more than offset by a 5 percentage point
decline in the child dependency ratio, and the total dependency
ratio fell from 65 to 61 per cent. The decline corresponds closely
to the overall trend in the developing countries (including China),
where the average old-age dependency ratio rose by 1 percentage
point and the child dependency ratio fell by 8 points. The total
dependency ratio dropped from 71 to 64 per cent. In the developed
countries, however, the old- age dependency ratio increased by 3
percentage points and the child dependency ratio fell by that
amount, so that the total dependency ratio remained constant at 51
per cent.
There is little likelihood of the projected
changes in age structure being nullified, either by unforeseen
events or by policy-induced changes in fertility or mortality
patterns. During the twenty-first the aging of the world's
population is a virtual certainty. Thus it provides a firm
foundation for long-range planning. Projections
for the long to 2025 indicate that, in the more developed regions,
the elderly proportion would increase by 9.2 percentage points. In
the less developed regions, the proportion is projected to increase
by 5.5 percentage points.
In the process of modernization, increased life
expectancy and lower fertility tend to be accompanied by a
weakening of the extended family. This weakening raises new demands
for the support of the older age group. Until recently, this has
been an issue primarily in industrialized countries. Now it is a
world-wide concern. Policies of mandatory ages of retirement were
regarded as socially progressive when work was regarded as painful
and retirement could be appropriately financed. Now they have to be
rethought in countries where rising health standards have prolonged
potential working life. In many developing countries, there will be
a need to develop social institutions to compensate for the
declining role of the extended family. Developed countries face
growing tax burdens on the economically active population,
competition for resources to provide for the needs of children and
the elderly, and a need to allocate costs and responsibilities of
caring for the elderly between Governments, individuals, and
families. These challenges may be magnified by declines in the
productivity and mobility of the labour force.
