MMNR Black rhino population numbers have remained
relatively stagnant since the mid 1990s, and the current population
density in the MMNR is around half that recorded in the 1970s.
However, studies indicate the population should be increasing, as
the mean calving interval suggests that females are breeding well.
Although the reasons for the lower density and slow population
increase remain unclear, a number of potential causes have been
proposed, including: previous overestimates; current
underestimates; and/or increased mortality. It has also been
suggested that the dramatic decline of woodland within the MMNR has
made the area less suitable for rhinos, which may be leading to
increased dispersal from the MMNR to the SNP. In response to this
uncertainty, the new KWS Black rhino strategy includes actions to
undertake a study on factors negatively affecting rhino numbers and
distribution, analyse existing information on mortality trends in
relation to predators, and to recommend measures to address these
issues (implemented under the Senior Scientist-Central Rift, Rhino
Programme Coordinator, and the ecologist to be deployed to the
area). Wherever possible and appropriate, MMNR management will
therefore provide logistical and technical support to streamline
the initiation and implementation of these studies, and ensure that
their results are reported back to managers in order to inform the
adaptive management of the MMNR.
